Bitcoin or Money?

[TwoTankAmin]

I spent the last13 years of my working in the investment field. I became a stock broker, a certified financial planner and a registered investment advisor in the end. I had to retire from all of that when I had to care for my elderly parents and sheppared them though their final years. I began managing the family money in 1981.

Today my brother and I, 2 old bachelors, live in a love home on 7.5 acres of woods in a wealthy area. We are the poor poeple in the small house. We are able to afford to live here because of how I managed the family investments. About 80% on my income is generated from dividends on the stocks I own which are purchased specifically for that.

Pension consulting involves asset allocation, management selection and diversification. It has a very long term approach. So, we used to generate reports every quarter. Without going into all the details, one of the things we monitor is a quarterly 10 year moving average.

For those who might be interested in one of the few times the maket did not show a positive return for rolling 10 year periods was due to the Crash of 29. Two situations exisited then which have not been repeated until recently. The first was people got caught up in the up markets prior to the crash and one could buy stock putting up only 10%. That is very far from what is now allowed. The FDIC insures banks wont fail taking depositors money with them.

The second factor which really precipitated the crash was the use of tariffs

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The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, enacted in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash, significantly worsened the Great Depression by raising tariffs on imports, leading to retaliatory measures and a sharp decline in international trade.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act: This act, signed into law by President Hoover, raised import duties to protect American businesses and farmers from the economic downturn.

Retaliatory Tariffs:
Other countries responded to the Smoot-Hawley Act by imposing their own tariffs on American goods, further hindering international trade.

Decline in International Trade:
The combined effect of the Smoot-Hawley Act and retaliatory tariffs led to a dramatic reduction in global trade, estimated to be around 66% between 1929 and 1934.

Exacerbated the Great Depression:
The sharp decline in international trade, coupled with other economic factors, exacerbated the Great Depression and its impact on global economies.

Economic Impact:
The tariffs raised prices and reduced the availability of goods and services, leading to lower incomes, reduced employment, and lower economic output in many countries.

Strained International Relations:
The Smoot-Hawley Act and the subsequent trade war strained relationships between the United States and other countries.

To quote Yogi Berra, "It's like déjà vu all over again." "A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore," "The future ain't what it used to be."

edited to fix many typos and misspellings

 

[GaryE]

If anyone wants to send me money, or bitcoin, I'll take it off your hands to solve the debate. That's from the kindness of my heart, you know.

I would unload the bitcoin and buy fish.

 

[fishorama]

Well, GaryE, maybe if they're giving away bitcoin, lol. But I'll take cold hard cash every time I'm not into fantasy games, Candy Crush Soda Saga excluded But I don't play that for money...it's not a game if real $$ are involved.

 

[jaylach]

Could you see if you would have had the insight to invest even just a few thousand into such companies as Microsoft, Xerox and such way back when they were new? You would be a multi billionaire.

 

[fishorama]

No, they'd just be part of our investment portfolio. I'd make some $$, not billions. But not lose much, if anything either, on other stocks & mutual funds. Our only sort of speculative stock are from husband's former co. Up a heck of a lot from his "stock awards", "options", etc. I can't do the math right now, I just grin & don't follow the math too hard day to day. That is very different than investing in the market & from holding to 1 stock for a big payoff...if it comes at all. We've done well by both...so far, so good. But we also know it may crumble to dust but not 0...& we're mostly ok with that in the long run. & that long run is how investing should be. It's not a lottery ticket to instant riches, it's return on investments over time.

 

[Oldspartan]

An interesting thread.

I was lucky in many ways. One of them was I have had some really solid mentors in my life that I had the common sense to listen to fold their advice into my world views.

I was told by my first boss that a new car was a waste of money and to never be in debt for a car. He always purchased 2 to 3-year-old autos although he could well afford any car he chose. We followed that advise early on, purchased older cars (older than a couple years), and saved hypothetical car payments. Eventually we saved enough to buy autos a couple of years old with cash. Last year we bought or first ever never brand-new car with cash. I hate it, do not like all the crap on it and in 8 months it has less than 48 miles on it. Our most used autos consist of a 2000 GMC Jimmy, a 1957 Dodge truck, and a 1969 Camero. All start when asked, go where we want and get us home.

We were always spenders. Our investments were somewhat aggressive early and became more conservative as we aged. Today half or so is invested in stocks that pay dividends, mostly various utility stocks. We are no longer interested much in growth stocks mostly wanting to just hold our own at this time.

Bitcoin? Did a lot of research but never could understand what actually supported it, therefore never took an active interest. NEVER invest in something not understood regardless of advice.

A second mentor told us to pay off our mortgage as quickly as we could afford. Our original mortgage came during the Carter inflationary years, not blaming him specifically just an identifier. It was 8.5% for 20 years. We doubled principal payments for years and made a final payment after year 13. Probably saved more money on interest than we would have made by investing. Never considered our house an investment, still do not. It is a home, and we need one.

A third told us to DIY to the extent possible We have done so from repairs to food. I remember when our monthly food bill was under 20 bucks, and we ate like we were spending 100's. (Today we do spend 100's but that is a choice).

Some sacrifices along the way? Not really many when I look back, mostly a tradeoff of immediate gratification for common sense, at least as we defined it. No new car odor, dirt under our fingernails, learning how to do things, and most importantly learning from respected mentor's mistakes. The biggest complaints came from our children as they grew. They did not often get what they wanted "today" and were usually expected to save half the money for their luxuries. We always matched their savings. Today they are instilling this same value system into our grandchildren for the most part.

Now in our 70's and if I am honest, we have an easy life even though I complain about aches and pains a bit. We have the dollars to pay our bills, have traveled extensively, and have a generous fun money account that we replenish annually.

I guess what I am saying is that with some very few exceptions the road to comfort is labeled slow and steady.

 

[GaryE]

I did things differently. I started out as a minimum wage worker, went to evening classes at university and got a degree that let me become a teacher. Invest in Microsoft? I invested in groceries.

When my grandfather died, I inherited a penknife and 2 Hank Williams records.

Once I had a good salary, I saved what I could. I soon found a job with a pension, and I worked very hard with my union to improve the situation for younger workers. The pension fun was as non profit as possible, and is viable and stable. Combined with the small basic pension every Canadian citizen pays into (not much with inflation since it was founded), I can live a pleasant modest life now. With my savings over the years, I can travel and enjoy my hobby.

With a socialized medicine system, also paid into for my working life, I won't be bankrupted by illness or refused treatment by an insurer. I get good care when I need it.

I had some new cars, but never to show off. One ran for 17 years, and the current one is a 2013. I had used cars until I got a job where travel was necessary, and where reliability mattered. My old green Toyota tercel was a tank through many snowstorms, til close to 750,000 km.

We bought a small cottage with an unfashionable address. We were lucky (others weren't), as the area became gentrified a few years later, and we moved to another uncool area. House prices went insane there during the pandemic and right after, and we moved again to our inexpensive small city by the sea. That was a compromise - I hated to give up the city. You have to deal with the price of admission though.

I miss the stimulation of the city, and the feeling of creativity happening all around me. This place is very conservative, and there isn't a lot of energy to feed on. But objectively, I'm old, so I can live with it. I'm a drop out now.

I'm aware that the generations before me made it possible for my generation to do things they couldn't, and that my generation kicked the ladder out for kids from my background now. That I don't like. House prices are ludicrous, buying power has gone down and education isn't as accessible as it was. The bitcoin debate affects a small class in our societies, I'm not part of it.

 

[seangee]

Arghhh Big Brother is here.
Since my last post on this thread I replaced my 10 year old car. There was nothing wrong with it but I was starting to get false error messages from all the electronics which has the potential to disable the car for "safety reasons". I actually assumed when I bought the car it would be the last car I ever bought, but the estimates for diagnosis of the electronics were so eye watering I replaced the car. New car is a bog standard smallish hatchback as aside from her indoors the only other passenger is my largish shepherd dog.

So the car beeps at me every time I exceed the speed limit (even though I have turned off / disabled GPS and location services) and the roads are not signposted (so they can't claim its camera detection). I phoned the dealer to ask them how to turn off the warnings permanently and you can't (speedo over reads by 3 mph so I can't drive at the speed limit without being shrieked at). I need to go through multiple menus to tempoarily disable it - so can't do this on the move if I forget when I start the car. Apparently its an EU law that cars built after a certain date must be fitted with this important safety feature , and we are not even in the EU!!! (Further investigation shows that the original draft law wanted to prevent the car from being able to exceed the speed limit - so we may yet see that in time to come). So how do they know the speed limit on the road I am on if they are not tracking my location 24/7. Another clue is that when I turn it on it displays the weather forecast and names the area. And if the bad guys hack the system they can see where I usually park at night and when the car is not there for a few days. They can even see where it is to calcualte how much time they have to clear my house

 

[TwoTankAmin]

In Jan. 2013 I had to replace the car used for mu mother. She did not drive but it was needed for her transport etc. I drove a 2013 Subaru legacy off the lot on A Wednesday and she passed away on Saturday. I inherited this car. I have been driving i ever since. It has no touch screen, it has no warning beeps it has no cameras. I does have a CD player

Today the car has about 76,000 miles on it. It runs fine. I expect it is the last car I will every buy, I do not want one with cameras. touch sreens (a big cause of accidents) or one that beeps and whistles at me. I have been parking fine without a backup camera since 1963. Smetime I have to borrow my brother's car which has all the things I do not want. I can not make any sense of the backup camera and simply ignore it. Amazing how I can still get my car into a parking space leaving a scant 18 inches of open space netween the cars in front and behind me.

I have been told bu htose who would know that this car should be good for 150,000 miles. SInce I drive less now than I did in the past 12 + years I would expect it woll take about 15 years for me to hit 150,000. That means I would be 92 when I need a new car. This assumes one can still get gasoline then of course. But given my general health I would be surrised if I live that long let alone still feel safe driving then.

The one thin I do know is I will never ride in a self driving car and most certainly Tesla tops the list of those potential self driving cars would ever ride in. Cameras only? I feel the same about any brand that has the same failing in design.

But here is what we should be thinking about in relation to the future of robots and AI. How many people works driving cabs, busses and trucks? How many people work loading undloading, stocking. Add up all the jobs that will be done without humans needed. What will billions of people who not longer hcan have a job be doing? What happens to us when closer to 90% of potential jonbs no longer exist?


We won't need drivers, farmers, construction workers, repair people. auto workers etc. etc. Bill gates recently talked about this. If you are inyour 20w or 30s today what do you think will be your jon in 10 - 20 years? Have a read here Bill Gates: Within 10 years, AI will replace many doctors and teachers—humans won’t be needed ‘for most things’

I am 77 and retired. I have enough money to be OK until I die, unless the world collapses beyond reasonable belief and I doubt I will be alive 20 years from now. I am sure most here plan to be that way however. And maybe you need to take Aretha's advice below when it comes to the future/

 

[Oldspartan]

"House prices are ludicrous, buying power has gone down and education isn't as accessible as it was. The bitcoin debate affects a small class in our societies, I'm not part of it."

1970's median income was about 13000 annually (US) and median house price mid 30 thousands --- about 2.5 times median income. Today median income is mid-fifties and house -- 425 thousand or so. That is 8 to 9 times earnings. It is crazy.

I know in housing the cost of regulation is a large cause.

My house is 100 plus years old, built when no to little regulation existed. A few years ago, when we built a daughter a home, I would make an educated guess local and state regs added more than the cost of my house to her home.

 

[GaryE]

When I first looked for a house, I lived on an island where there wasn't a lot of new construction (space), but housing was affordable by national average. A decent older house cost 2 times my annual salary. Now, for someone the age I was, a similar postwar build costs up to 16 times their average salary.
The population of the city has remained stable.

I have a friend who's a home builder who says they're caught in a materials cost problem. Around here, if they can build and sell a McMansion, it's worth it. But for affordable smaller homes, the profit margin is too low. If they stack the profit they want onto smaller houses, no one can buy them. The cost of many materials is about to become worse, up to 25% worse, and until local industry finds untraditional new markets, times are going to be tough.

 

[TwoTankAmin]

As young boy who just turned 3 my parent decided to move frmm NYC to the suburbs. My dad bought a house for use. He had to commute to the city every day for work as a lawyer. After about a decade he decided that the commute was too much and we reryend to the city. He sold the house fro the same amount as he had paid for it 10 years earlier.

So in the early 1960s my brother an I went to a private school in the city that required we ride 3 different busses each way to and from shool every ay, We had bus passes which gave us unlimited trips. One the way home where we changed to the final bus was one of the few pizza placed in the city in those days. We would stop for a slice of pizza and a cold drink every day. This cost us each 235 cents.

The other thing I realized about the passage of times was that if one bought a home and lived in for a number of years, the price one ppaid for that home soon became the price one would be paying for a new car. My first car was a used VW Bug, the real deal. it cost a few under $1,000. I drove that car into the ground. I sold it to the daughter of a family friend for $300 and she spent about that much to put it back into good condition. She put another 100,000 mile on it before it died.

I am very lucky. I began managing the family money starting back in 1982. I was a stock broker and financial planner back then and I set things up for the future. Today, I and my brother are well enough off financially that we should be OK until the day we each die. I am not so sure this sort of thing is possible any longer.

And then there is this. Since the day I was born there have been two political parties in America who alternate being in charge and sometimes working together. If you want to know who is screwing us all, it is not the democrats, it is not the republicans it is the politicians. And they are only in power because we vote these mostly idiots into power. So, if you feel like your life is going down the just remember that you voted for it. How much time do you spend researching the candidates for whom you vote? How well do you examine their past records?

You Can't Always Get What You Want
Song by The Rolling Stones ‧ 1969

Ah, you can't always get what you want, no, no, baby
You can't always get what you want, you can't now, now
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you just might find
You just might find that you
You get what you need, oh yeah
Ah yeah, do that.

 

[seangee]

So, if you feel like your life is going down the just remember that you voted for it.

That's a bit unfair. In the US (as well as the UK) you only get to choose the person or party you believe is the least worst. I may start to believe democracy exists when a poor, working class person takes up residence in the white house or number 10. And I can't see that happening any time soon!

 

[GaryE]

That's a bit unfair. In the US (as well as the UK) you only get to choose the person or party you believe is the least worst. I may start to believe democracy exists when a poor, working class person takes up residence in the white house or number 10. And I can't see that happening any time soon!

A working class person in the White House, no 10 or in Ottawa? Sure. The leaders can afford servants, and seven US Presidents even housed working slaves at the White House.

I'm trying to be an optimist these days.

 

[Oldspartan]

This is devolving — bye