i would go with 150. i have a 150 in my 10 gallon and they are fine. temperature is always the same, and the heater is only on for about 20 seconds out of every like 10 minutes. ive had my heater for about 3 years already and it still hasnt changed. the only heaters i use are hagen thermal compacts. i have a 150, 300, and a 25. imo, they really tough, ive dropped the heater once and i never turn it off when the water level drops below what its supposed to when i do water changes and all my heaters have no problem.