Coronavirus...post your thoughts here...

[The Lumpfish Guy]

This is true, not all of them. I have seen this issue multiple times in the media too,

Death certificate data: COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death | The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

www.cebm.net

"Overall about one in thirteen deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death; however, this proportion has risen substantially to nearly a third over the last eight weeks."

I don't know if its peer-reviewed for those of you with time on your hands to check if it is, however Oxford is well known for having the brainiest people around...

"The Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) develops, teaches, promotes and disseminates better evidence for health care."

I have really wanted to stay off this thread, TFF has been a great place for me not to think about the current situation, but I am disappointed at the lack of Science literacy going on here.

So you are mis-interpreting this data set and the aim of the work.
They are wanting to better understand the large datasets put out by Public Health England, so they can get a clearer picture in the winter months where there is a high incidence of all respiratory illnesses. The numbers they are reporting DOES NOT mean that 1/3rd of official COVID deaths are not from COVID.

This work is attempting to make sense of the public health England data where they are documenting "excess deaths". They have estimated from those figures (on the 28th of august) that there were 45K deaths where COVID is certified as the underlying cause of death. They are then comparing this to the number of deaths were COVID Positive is mentioned but not the cause of death (49K cases), cases by the way which are not classed as COVID deaths on the official stats.
They highlight the importance of distinguishing between these two within this large and broad dataset which government officials and hospitals use to inform public health policy (obviously important). Especially over the winter!

But they are not disputing the official number of COVID deaths, in fact their estimation of COVID caused deaths is higher than the official figure by the UK government as it stands today (44,745) 24-10-2020.

Please people Science literacy is important.

 

[snailaquarium]

I have really wanted to stay off this thread, TFF has been a great place for me not to think about the current situation, but I am disappointed at the lack of Science literacy going on here.

So you are mis-interpreting this data set and the aim of the work.
They are wanting to better understand the large datasets put out by Public Health England, so they can get a clearer picture in the winter months where there is a high incidence of all respiratory illnesses. The numbers they are reporting DOES NOT mean that 1/3rd of official COVID deaths are not from COVID.

This work is attempting to make sense of the public health England data where they are documenting "excess deaths". They have estimated from those figures (on the 28th of august) that there were 45K deaths where COVID is certified as the underlying cause of death. They are then comparing this to the number of deaths were COVID Positive is mentioned but not the cause of death (49K cases), cases by the way which are not classed as COVID deaths on the official stats.
They highlight the importance of distinguishing between these two within this large and broad dataset which government officials and hospitals use to inform public health policy (obviously important). Especially over the winter!

But they are not disputing the official number of COVID deaths, in fact their estimation of COVID caused deaths is higher than the official figure by the UK government as it stands today (44,745) 24-10-2020.

Please people Science literacy is important.

`

I will look into this further tomorrow, however I will reiterate my previous quote

This is true, not all of them. I have seen this issue multiple times in the media too,

 

[madmark285]

Please people Science literacy is important.

Thank you for spending the time and effort by reading the article. The issue I have with these type of post, you end up doing the work. I am not sure if the OP even read the article as it did not support his position.

I am very concerned about the USA as so many seems to reject science, just look at the many attempt to toss Dr. Fauci under the bus which have failed.

 

[The Lumpfish Guy]

Thank you for spending the time and effort by reading the article.....

So the issue comes in this day and age that many people just read something (usually a headline or the first paragraph) and assume. It took me quite a while to critically read through their methods, and the conclusions drawn from it, I probably did more than most would. But I worked through the updated data, compared to current and past datasets, read two other papers by one of the authors describing the importance of such information.

Here comes the issue, It does take a lot of time to actually read and analyse this information and draw a conclusion. in this case it took me about 45 mins to do all I described above. This is a lot of effort just for one tiny point of data.
So this is why we have people, Such as Dr. Fauci in the US, but people in the WHO, the UK SAGE committee ect who's job it is to do all of this effort for everyday people and come to a conclusion. They are highly educated people with decades of experience in their specific topic/ field. they have literally spent lifetimes working through every single scientific paper so you don't have to.

This is why we have experts!
One person cannot be expected to know everything, but if you stuck Dr Fauci under a car and told him to rebuild the engine he would not be able to do it. So why is it that people who don't even know how to google something properly are able to challenge something someone has spent their entire life understanding.

Yes scientist can disagree on thing, Yes they can change their mind, but what scientists tell you is their best understanding of the situation/world at this point of time. And if something comes along which does not fit they don't make it fit. They change their position!

 

[snailaquarium]

Well England is back in lockdown.

 

[kwi]

Well England is back in lockdown.

You get bonfire night first though?

 

[itiwhetu]

America and the rest of the world just got this wrong. As far as I see very few countries were brave enough to do what needed to be done, NZ was one of them. Our lives are back to normal covid free. The only real change in NZ is there are no tourists, basically because no other country did what we did.

 

[seangee]

And on the plus side they cancelled today's episode of "who wants to be king of lala land" which TV producers seem to think is more important than actual news.

 

[mbsqw1d]

You get bonfire night first though?

Kicks in the same night... definitely not asking for trouble

 

[kwi]

Kicks in the same night... definitely not asking for trouble

Our fireworks night is Halloween, we don't celebrate Guy Fawkes in N. Ireland, it was strange not having a stream of trck or treaters at our door last night. Means more sweets for me though, not that I need them..........

 

[Colin_T]

We had trick or treaters wandering around the neighbourhood last night. I didn't answer the door. I thought it was ridiculous and dangerous considering there is a pandemic. You don't know if the people door knocking have covid or if the home owners have covid.

------------------
Apparently Victoria on the east coast of Australia is out of lock down and are getting back on with semi normal life.

The Western Australian government is apparently going to allow people from other states into WA without quarantining them even though there are active cases in most other states. All year the WA government has been saying nobody is coming into the state until there have been no cases of covid in Australia for at least 1 month, and now they are apparently dropping the border gates and letting anyone in. It doesn't make sense considering WA is supposedly covid free for over 5 months (besides new cases coming in from overseas and they are in a government controlled quarantine facility). And we have lots of remote Aboriginal communities that are at a very high risk of dying if they catch it, and these communities are up to 1000km or more from the nearest hospital.

 

[madmark285]

America and the rest of the world just got this wrong. As far as I see very few countries were brave enough to do what needed to be done, NZ was one of them. Our lives are back to normal covid free. The only real change in NZ is there are no tourists, basically because no other country did what we did.

I admire your Prime Minister, Ms. Ardern, I would gladly trade Trump and a pacific island to be named later for her But to be fair, New Zealand is already a isolated island and was easy to cut off from the world. New Zealand also benefits by being close to Australia which is doing quite well. When arguing with my conservative relatives, I use South Korea or Japan (OK, that another island) as examples.

Unfortunately for USA residents, it has become a nightmare but hopefully things will change come Tuesday, election day.

Side note, I would take the Bikini Atoll in the trade. The article What Bikini Atoll Looks Like Today says the coral reefs are thriving with minimal human contact. I am not justify nuclear weapons, just nice to see nature win in the end.

 

[Naughts]

UK is an island but it didn't help us
Seems holidays in Europe contributed to our predicament

 

[Spalders]

I've only just seen this thread so I've jumped to the end to post my thoughts.
Is there a virus? Yes, but it's not the death sentence for the average man (or woman) that the WHO want us to believe. I also think that the flu (and I mean Influenza, not the common cold) takes more people than Covid. The UK is now about to start another lockdown on Thursday Nov 5th, but kids can stay at school. So let me get my head around this.... kids from different households can go to school, but adults must not mix households? Isn't that as senseless as cutting off your leg while buying a new pair of shoes?
You must work from home if you can. I'm a painter and decorator so unless I have really long arms, I can't work from home. However, I can't mix households so I can't decorate Mrs Smith's living room but her kids can go to the same school as my (or your) kids.
Being a decorator I often use spray equipment. Even when spraying water based products I have to wear a BS rated respirator and eye protection. But somehow the "deadliest virus known to man" is halted by a piece of cloth over your mouth. And obviously this virus is so stupid it can't find its way around the unprotected areas of a visor....
Get out, enjoy yourself, live your life. You only have one and why would you want to spend it being told you can't see your friends, your family, and you can't work? Yes be careful but don't isolate yourself. It's not good for your wellbeing.

 

[kwi]

I also think that the flu (and I mean Influenza, not the common cold) takes more people than Covid.

I keep seeing this but no one backs it up with figures.
In the US last year about 34,000 died, considerably down on the 61,000 the previous year.
How many have died in the US of covid-19 so far? Over a quarter of a million...........about the same as the previous 6 years of flu deaths..........